Liberal Forum

Fuelman » Today, 8:09 am » wrote: ↑

Today, 8:09 am

You must use different charts than everyone else?

Ya Think?   LIQT doesn't buy the brainwashing you do..

Current estimates for a US recession range between 17% and 48%, depending on the model, with prediction markets showing record-low odds of a near-term downturn.

Lovely...

Economic indicators and probability models vary across top institutionsrediction Markets:

But of course..

On platforms like Kalshi, odds of a 2026 recession have recently plummeted to around 17.5%, while competitor Polymarket tracks odds in the 23% to 40% range.

Betting on losing isn't popular..  When does Humanity get axed?  Who's gonna collect?

Federal Reserve Models: The NY Fed's recession probability model (based on the Treasury spread) sits at 17.6%. Conversely, the Philadelphia Fed's "Anxious Index" puts a 25.0% probability on a contraction next quarter.

Wall Street Institutions: Goldman Sachs forecasts a 30% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, while models like Moody’s Analytics place the 12-month likelihood slightly higher at 48.6%.

Note: Economic recession models are inherently estimations based on historical financial metrics like yield curves, inflation, and employment data, rather than guarantees.

Again, I am sure you and LIQT can debate the details..  Everything I see indicates the AI Bubble is gonna blow like the Manhattan Project on Acid. That **** is faked an hyped up and it is identical to the dot com bust in layout. Why did Peter Thiel move to Argentina?  He said it was too unstable in the USA..

Pay attention Fool Man. But it probably doesn't matter anyway..  There'll be 5 kids for every doll this Christmas..